First before you start filling out your bracket there are 3 crucial rules that I follow every single year.
Rule #1 Never pick a 16 seed over a 1 seed upset. It will happen one day there have been a few really close calls but it hasn't happened yet so don't put your eggs in that basket.
Rule #2 Always have at least one double digit seed between a 10 seed and a 13 seed to make the sweet 16. It happens basically every single year.
Rule #3 NEVER EVER UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES!!!!!! Put all 4 #1 seeds in the Final Four it does not happen. Only once in the entire history of the NCAA tournament has that happened. So don't do it. In reality you should look for at least 2 #1 seeds that will go down potentially one of them at the sweet 16 round.
Picking upsets is a little difficult mainly because you have to have some luck in hoping it actually happens. When looking for potential upsets I look for two things. first thing is looking for teams I'm very certain are over-seeded aka Over-rated and got seeded too high. The second thing I look for is for the higher seeded team that could get upset is inconsistent guard play and lack of match-up problems. Power 5 teams that don't have major match-up advantages against the little guy are always vulnerable. Most of these smaller schools and mid majors already have great guard play that's why there in the tourney now, but a lot of them don't have a lot of depth or size down low so if they play a power 5 school that doesn't have legit big men that causes problems for them down low and or plays small ball a lot watch out. (Yeah I'm talking to you Villanova)
So here are a few sleeper teams that I think can potentially make some noise in the tourney. I'm not saying their going to the Final Four but sleeper teams that could either have a huge upset or make a sweet 16 run.
1.) Saint Joseph's- I won't lie yesterday was my first and only time watching these guys play. I watched them in the A-10 title game. I came away extremely impressed by this team. They are long and play serious D. The other thing is they have big men that can stretch the floor and play from the perimeter that causes match-up issues for a lot of teams. From what I saw if I'm a power 5 team that is one mid major I do not want to play in the first round. Cincinnati will have its hands full with these guys in the first round.
2.) Stephen F. Austin- This is a team that has dominated the Southland Conference the past 3 years. They have good guard play from senior guard Thomas Walk-up. I also like their matchup against West Virginia. SFA lead the country in forced turnovers West Virginia was the second best. West Virginia's style of play goes into exactly what SFA loves to do. Just like in boxing and MMA styles makes fights. Sometimes that's true in basketball.
3.) California- I'm putting California on this list because simply put it they just have a ton of talent on this team. Granted 2 of their best 3 players are freshman but 3 of their starting 5 players will be called in the 1st round in the NBA draft come June. Ivan Rabb and Jaylen Brown are two very talented freshman that will both go top 10 in the draft. But what gives me some confidence is their lead guard is a senior in Tyrone Wallace who's the 3rd NBA talent on this team. 98% of teams don't have an NBA player on their roster this team has 3 and won 9 of their last 11 games coming into the tournament so they have some momentum.
4.) Providence- They have maybe the best 2 player duo in the country in the best PG in the country in Kris Dunn who won Big East player of the year and Foward Ben Bentil who averaged 21 ppg and 8 rebs per game. They are a very dangerous 9 seed and are truly an under-seeded team.
Now here are some teams I think potentially everyone are high on but won't make the Final Four and potentially could be out early.
1.) North Carolina- This is hurting me beyond belief because I'am a true die hard UNC Tarheel fan. I preach God made the sky Carolina Blue. But they have just been way too inconsistent for me to feel comfortable. UNC is without question the most talented team in the nation from top to bottom and when they are on there's not a team they can't beat. But man when it comes down the stretch they have had numerous games where they just folded late especially with their guard play. Marcus Paige is a senior who has not had his best season and Joel Berry is good one day and not so good the next. Their best player is Brice Johnson and they have long stretches where they don't even give him the ball its mind boggling. Simply put it idk if I can trust this team.
2.) Duke- This is a team that isn't very athletic, they don't have a ton of depth, and they are top heavy. They are over-seeded in my opinion as a 4 seed. I just don't see them making much noise this year. This is just a down year for Duke. Outside of Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram they don't have much.
3.) Iowa State- They have a very good PG in Monte Morris and offensively they can score but they are not a good defensive team. Let's not forget last year in the tourney they didn't have an upset loss they had a bracket busting loss last year to a UAB team that wasn't very good. I don't expect much out of Iowa State and they were heavily over-seeded as a 4 seed.
I'm still not finished on my final four picks as of yet but 2 teams I'm putting in for sure are
1.Kansas
2.Michigan State
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